With only 4 regular season games left and a 7-5 record, the hunt for a playoff spot is on.  One of the most straightforward explanations I've found on how ties are broken  can be found here.  Open it up in a different window and keep it handy (you're gonna need it).  Did I mention the AFC East hasn't been this close in a long time?  Here's the current standings within the AFC East, opponents for the next 4 games, and their records:

1. Jets (8-4) - 49ers(4-8), Bills (6-6), Seahawks (2-10), Dolphins (7-5)
2. Pats (7-5) - Seahawks (2-10), Raiders (3-9), Cardinals (7-5), Bills (6-6)
3. Fins (7-5) - Bills (6-6), 49ers (4-8), Chiefs (2-10), Jets (8-4)
4. Bills (6-6) - Dolphins (7-5), Jets (8-4), Broncos (7-5), Patriots (7-5)

Leaving the Bills out of it for the moment, the Pats, Jets, and Fins will end up at 11-5 (winning out for Miami means they beat the Jets) and tie breaking rules for the Division Winner will apply.  You kept that tie breaker link open, right?

Rule 1, Head-to-head record: 1-1
Rule 2, Won/Lost percentage within division: 4-2
Rule 3, Won/Lost percentage in common games: Pats (9-1), Fins (9-1), Jets (7-3)

Believe it or not, the Jets would be out of the Division leader race because they don't pass Rule 3, Win/Lost percentage in common games.  They could still be in the hunt for a Wildcard spot, but that's for Part II.  We've now narrowed the AFC East Division Champion race down to the Pats and Fins.  We go back to Rule #1 once the third club is dropped off the list.  Since both the Pats and Fins have passed through Rules 1 - 3, we move on to:

Rule 4, Won/Lost percentage in conference games: Pats (7-5), Fins (8-4)

The Miami Dolphins become the Division Winner and are guaranteed a playoff berth.  We then battle it out with the Jets (and the rest of the AFC) for a potential Wildcard spot.

The most expensive games to lose, at this point, are divisional games.  Ex: if the Fins win out, but lose against the Jets, they hand a win to a divisional opponent and blow their standing within the division.  Jets at 12-4 would win the division, we'd finish at 11-5 and Miami at 10-6.  Record is king.  There would be no application of tie breaking rules.  The Pats would then move on to other AFC teams with an 11-5 and the tie breaking rules would be applied to fight for WC spot.

Best possible scenario?  We win out (11-5), Buffalo gets hot and beats both the Fins and the Jets, and the Fins beat the Jets (both end up 10-6).  We become the division champs with a better record than both the Fins AND the Jets.  Suddenly, the Bills are my new favorite team...except in Week 17.

projo.com

Bawby: What Mahh? I'm talkin' to my friends.
Mah: What's that smell?
Bawby: I'm makin' sum chicken soup for Wes.
Mah: Why?
Bawby: Did you see that hit?  That guy Ryan Claahhk layed out poor Wes.  I mean, he went ayaborn and everythin'.  I was ready to head down to Foxboro and give Claahhk a piece of my mind.  Except, he's biggah than me and wears a helmet and would've ripped my freakin head clean off.  Anyways, I'm bringing Wes some soup to help him recover.
Mah: You remember the last time, right?
Bawby: The Foxboro PD locked me up 'cause I pitched a tent outside the playah's entrance.  So what?  Wes needs me.  I have this soup, some blankets to keep him wohm, and a pitchah of me in case, you know, he wants to hang it in his lockah.  Afterall, I AM...
Mah: Wes's biggest fan, I know.

Continue reading this post »

patriots.com

Ugly, butt ugly. Plain and simple.  That was some really bad football by our Patriots.  But, before I get into it, anyone who lays this on Cassel wasn't watching the game.  Sure, he had his share of mistakes, but overall he played solid ball.  When the cast around you CAN'T...HOLD...ONTO...THE...BALL, there's not much you can do.

30 unanswered points.  You read that right; Bill Belichick's Patriots haven't done that in like 5 years.  Just poor football on our part and a Steelers' team ready to create and take advantage of opportunities.  Outplayed, big time.

Positives

• Mike Vrabel's interception to setup a TD.
• [EDIT] Kevin Faulk with 6 for 73, one gain a 41 yarder

Negatives

• Gostkowski, usually money, misses a 27 yarder with 21 seconds left in the half.
• Matthew Slater muffs a kickoff return catch and Pittsburgh recovers.  Two plays later, Hines Ward muscles his way into the endzone.  I was wondering why he was in there instead of Hobbs or Faulk or Welker.  Was BB trying to rest the other guys?  We'll never know.  All I know is Slater will be catching about 412,378,954,123,315 kickoff return balls in practice this week.  Or maybe he won't...which would be worse for him.  Being ignored is a death sentence.
• Pittsburgh OLB James Harrison is allowed in the backfield on Cassel's blind side and manages 2 strip sacks.  That side of the O line fell apart on keeping track of him.  What's his contract status?  Can we pick him up? :-(
• Our receivers, so hot in the last couple of games, simply couldn't find the handle.  Randy, with two sure touchdown catches, is the most guilty of them all.  Those were not only lost points, but momentum killers.  Make those kind of catches and the opposition is demoralized.
• Third down efficiency was 1/13.  JHR caught this in the open thread and I think he's right: this was a MAJOR factor in this loss.  Third and some yardage?  Let's just throw every time, which leads me to my next point...
• Why the hell were we passing sooooooo much when Kevin Faulk was having such a good game?  I mean, 6 for 73 with a 41 yarder...and you're throwing the ball?!?!?  We were running against one of the best run defenses in the business.  Aarrgghh!!!
• Deltha O'Neal is a serious liability.  If not a shutdown corner, Asante Samuel was pretty darn close.  O'Neal is a "throw it here" corner.
• 1 for 4 in the redzone.  Couple that with a horrid third down efficiency and we were in for a long night.
• We have no answer for the RB pair of Mewelde Moore and Willie Parker.  Combined, they blasted through us for 154 yards.
• Time of possession for the Steelers' was 35:05 vs. the Patriots' 24:55.  Our defense was on the field too, too much. 

Using Shake's wildcard standing post, we're still in the mix.  I just hate relying on other teams to lose for us to make it.  I think I need a drink.

Ugly, ugly football by our team.  I'm working on my recap right now, but here's your postgame thread.

Here we go!!  Pittsburgh rolls into town with their killer D and revenge on their mind.  If you recall, we managed a 34-13 win over Pitt and their memory is long.  Matt Cassel has progressed nicely and this will be a good test for him.  Can he continue to hit Moss like the Miami trouncing?  Will Pitt be able to apply a strong pass rush AND shutdown starts Randy and Wes?  Welcome to Foxborough, MA.

Injury Report
Starting Lineups

Here ya go, gang.  If you happen to be watching some of the other NFL games, drop a comment or two.  For divisional matchups we have Buffalo vs. SF, Miami vs. Seattle, and NYJ vs. Denver.

I was convinced the battle to watch was our #7 O vs. the Stillers' #1 D.  With a couple of 400+ games under our belt and significant improvement since the beginning of the season, an offensive victory would be huge for this team.  And, if it was against the #1 D in the league, it would be, like ya know, cool like (been hanging around my teenager too long).

I was convinced, that is, until one of our fine rival bloggers suggested Patriots' D vs. Steelers' O.  We've run into this before.  Even in 2007, our D was much maligned as having the luxury of a record breaking offense; they had a cushion.  Some of the numbers are remarkably similar.  As an example, we're at the bottom of the barrel for red zone defense at 31...almost identical to last year.  And cornerback is, well, cornerback.  Have I mentioned Rodney's IR'd?

I think our rival blogger has a point.  The Steelers' D and Patriots' O have already proven their worth and ability.  The Steelers' O and Patriots' D could be the battle to watch, IFF (if and only if for the non-boolean logic folks in the crowd) they show up.  IFF Big Ben "shows up", we'll be in for a long day, especially in the red zone.  Consequently, if our D manages to exert pressure on Ben and make him jittery, it'll give our offense that much more time on the field.

This is gonna be a good one...

Hello 'Fins faithful,

there was a lot of back and forth this past week about "The Incident".  For me, it's water under the bridge and I hope that's the case for y'all - no hard feelings.  We get heated about our teams because we're fans, good fans.

The AFC East is getting strong again and the Fins are a huge part of that.  Good luck against the Rams.  We have the Stillers at home and it oughta be interesting.  Oh, and it was 35 and raining at my nephew's Pop Warner game this morning.  Now THAT'S football weather.  Sorry, couldn't resist... ;-)

Today starts a day, and weekend, of football for me.  Just to show you how old I am, it's my 33rd Thanksgiving Day game, Woburn High School vs. Winchester High School (my first was as a freshmen in high school, dang I'm old).  I haven't missed a game yet with my dad.  Friday, my nephew (just moved from Indiana) fights for the Massachusetts Pop Warner State finals in his age group.  If he wins, the Woburn Trojans D team heads down to Florida and the nationals.

There are many to thank, but I'm always thinking of our service men and women who are abroad and not able to be with family during this day of giving.  Thank you for keeping us safe and come home soon.

I am most thankful for my wife who slaves over a hot stove preparing a meal for a dozen people while I get to watch football.  I'm lucky she doesn't toss me out the window with the turkey carcass!

Have a safe holiday, folks.